🏈 NFL 2021 — backtest
Walk-forward test: every finished game re-predicted using only results available before kickoff. MAE is the average miss on the margin; SU is straight-up winner accuracy; ATS is the record picking against the market's closing spread.
| Model | Graded | MAE (pts) | Bias | SU record | SU % | ATS record | ATS % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Efficiency+ (HFA, recency, regression) | 237 | 11.30 | -0.73 | 147–89 | 62.0% | 111–122–4 | 48.0% |
| Efficiency (classic) | 237 | 11.77 | -2.22 | 141–95 | 60.0% | 109–124–4 | 47.0% |
| Efficiency (original bug)bug reproduced | 237 | 12.63 | -2.28 | 141–95 | 60.0% | 121–112–4 | 52.0% |
Efficiency+ (HFA, recency, regression) — MAE by week
Wk 4
11.37/16 SU
Wk 5
8.712/16 SU
Wk 6
12.410/14 SU
Wk 7
13.910/13 SU
Wk 8
8.211/15 SU
Wk 9
11.36/14 SU
Wk 10
19.36/13 SU
Wk 11
11.410/15 SU
Wk 12
11.510/15 SU
Wk 13
9.19/14 SU
Wk 14
10.310/14 SU
Wk 15
8.89/16 SU
Wk 16
11.89/16 SU
Wk 17
13.212/16 SU
Wk 18
11.28/16 SU
Wk 19
13.05/6 SU
Wk 20
6.11/4 SU
Wk 21
5.71/2 SU
Wk 22
2.51/1 SU
Worst misses
- Wk 10 · predicted +12.4, actual -2436.4 off
- Wk 8 · predicted -2.0, actual -3836.0 off
- Wk 7 · predicted +5.9, actual +4135.1 off
- Wk 11 · predicted +7.9, actual -2633.9 off
- Wk 10 · predicted +4.2, actual +3833.8 off
- Wk 18 · predicted -17.3, actual +1532.3 off
- Wk 16 · predicted +10.1, actual +4231.9 off
- Wk 4 · predicted +8.4, actual +4031.6 off