🏈 NFL 2025 — backtest
Walk-forward test: every finished game re-predicted using only results available before kickoff. MAE is the average miss on the margin; SU is straight-up winner accuracy; ATS is the record picking against the market's closing spread.
| Model | Graded | MAE (pts) | Bias | SU record | SU % | ATS record | ATS % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Efficiency+ (HFA, recency, regression) | 237 | 10.13 | -0.42 | 153–83 | 65.0% | 125–111–1 | 53.0% |
| Efficiency (classic) | 237 | 10.71 | -2.18 | 152–84 | 64.0% | 124–112–1 | 53.0% |
| Efficiency (original bug)bug reproduced | 237 | 11.23 | -2.32 | 148–88 | 63.0% | 125–111–1 | 53.0% |
Efficiency+ (HFA, recency, regression) — MAE by week
Wk 4
10.07/15 SU
Wk 5
10.85/14 SU
Wk 6
7.810/15 SU
Wk 7
12.610/15 SU
Wk 8
15.69/13 SU
Wk 9
10.37/14 SU
Wk 10
9.211/14 SU
Wk 11
8.99/15 SU
Wk 12
7.012/14 SU
Wk 13
10.99/16 SU
Wk 14
11.510/14 SU
Wk 15
10.39/16 SU
Wk 16
10.713/16 SU
Wk 17
9.710/16 SU
Wk 18
9.111/16 SU
Wk 19
7.45/6 SU
Wk 20
10.93/4 SU
Wk 21
1.82/2 SU
Wk 22
15.61/1 SU
Worst misses
- Wk 5 · predicted +0.3, actual -3434.3 off
- Wk 4 · predicted -3.3, actual +2932.3 off
- Wk 11 · predicted -3.0, actual +2932.0 off
- Wk 8 · predicted +0.1, actual -3131.1 off
- Wk 16 · predicted +6.9, actual -2430.9 off
- Wk 13 · predicted +11.9, actual -1829.9 off
- Wk 14 · predicted +1.2, actual +3129.8 off
- Wk 8 · predicted +5.5, actual -2429.5 off