🏈 NFL 2023 — backtest
Walk-forward test: every finished game re-predicted using only results available before kickoff. MAE is the average miss on the margin; SU is straight-up winner accuracy; ATS is the record picking against the market's closing spread.
| Model | Graded | MAE (pts) | Bias | SU record | SU % | ATS record | ATS % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Efficiency+ (HFA, recency, regression) | 237 | 10.55 | -1.76 | 143–94 | 60.0% | 115–111–11 | 51.0% |
| Efficiency (classic) | 237 | 11.30 | -3.04 | 139–98 | 59.0% | 109–117–11 | 48.0% |
| Efficiency (original bug)bug reproduced | 237 | 12.41 | -2.96 | 143–94 | 60.0% | 109–117–11 | 48.0% |
Efficiency+ (HFA, recency, regression) — MAE by week
Wk 4
14.910/16 SU
Wk 5
13.56/14 SU
Wk 6
8.310/15 SU
Wk 7
11.15/13 SU
Wk 8
9.212/16 SU
Wk 9
10.510/14 SU
Wk 10
8.28/14 SU
Wk 11
7.510/14 SU
Wk 12
9.99/16 SU
Wk 13
9.210/13 SU
Wk 14
10.76/15 SU
Wk 15
12.49/16 SU
Wk 16
9.28/16 SU
Wk 17
11.612/16 SU
Wk 18
10.89/16 SU
Wk 19
16.15/6 SU
Wk 20
7.73/4 SU
Wk 21
8.41/2 SU
Wk 22
3.30/1 SU
Worst misses
- Wk 15 · predicted -1.0, actual +4243.0 off
- Wk 5 · predicted +0.3, actual -3434.3 off
- Wk 17 · predicted +3.4, actual +3733.6 off
- Wk 10 · predicted +2.1, actual -3133.1 off
- Wk 7 · predicted -0.8, actual +3232.8 off
- Wk 5 · predicted +0.6, actual +3231.4 off
- Wk 19 · predicted +0.9, actual +3130.1 off
- Wk 14 · predicted -5.6, actual +2429.6 off