🏈 NFL 2024 — backtest
Walk-forward test: every finished game re-predicted using only results available before kickoff. MAE is the average miss on the margin; SU is straight-up winner accuracy; ATS is the record picking against the market's closing spread.
| Model | Graded | MAE (pts) | Bias | SU record | SU % | ATS record | ATS % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Efficiency+ (HFA, recency, regression) | 237 | 10.21 | -0.99 | 159–78 | 67.0% | 116–118–3 | 50.0% |
| Efficiency (classic) | 237 | 10.87 | -2.61 | 160–77 | 68.0% | 121–113–3 | 52.0% |
| Efficiency (original bug)bug reproduced | 237 | 11.65 | -2.70 | 160–77 | 68.0% | 124–110–3 | 53.0% |
Efficiency+ (HFA, recency, regression) — MAE by week
Wk 4
11.17/16 SU
Wk 5
8.36/14 SU
Wk 6
12.98/14 SU
Wk 7
12.09/15 SU
Wk 8
9.011/16 SU
Wk 9
8.811/15 SU
Wk 10
9.08/14 SU
Wk 11
9.913/14 SU
Wk 12
12.28/13 SU
Wk 13
6.415/16 SU
Wk 14
7.69/13 SU
Wk 15
9.413/16 SU
Wk 16
9.912/16 SU
Wk 17
12.212/16 SU
Wk 18
12.310/16 SU
Wk 19
14.03/6 SU
Wk 20
8.82/4 SU
Wk 21
17.01/2 SU
Wk 22
8.31/1 SU
Worst misses
- Wk 18 · predicted -0.5, actual +3838.5 off
- Wk 6 · predicted -0.9, actual -3837.1 off
- Wk 4 · predicted +6.3, actual -2834.3 off
- Wk 4 · predicted -7.1, actual +2532.1 off
- Wk 11 · predicted +14.2, actual +4631.8 off
- Wk 9 · predicted +0.0, actual +3131.0 off
- Wk 11 · predicted +1.9, actual +3230.1 off
- Wk 17 · predicted -5.3, actual -3327.7 off