🏈 NFL 2022 — backtest
Walk-forward test: every finished game re-predicted using only results available before kickoff. MAE is the average miss on the margin; SU is straight-up winner accuracy; ATS is the record picking against the market's closing spread.
| Model | Graded | MAE (pts) | Bias | SU record | SU % | ATS record | ATS % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Efficiency+ (HFA, recency, regression) | 236 | 9.21 | -0.89 | 146–89 | 62.0% | 118–110–8 | 52.0% |
| Efficiency (classic) | 236 | 9.95 | -2.27 | 141–94 | 60.0% | 108–120–8 | 47.0% |
| Efficiency (original bug)bug reproduced | 236 | 10.41 | -2.15 | 141–94 | 60.0% | 111–117–8 | 49.0% |
Efficiency+ (HFA, recency, regression) — MAE by week
Wk 4
8.67/16 SU
Wk 5
10.710/16 SU
Wk 6
9.66/14 SU
Wk 7
11.88/14 SU
Wk 8
9.78/15 SU
Wk 9
6.99/13 SU
Wk 10
9.15/14 SU
Wk 11
9.511/14 SU
Wk 12
6.211/16 SU
Wk 13
9.411/14 SU
Wk 14
9.79/13 SU
Wk 15
6.610/16 SU
Wk 16
10.19/16 SU
Wk 17
13.011/15 SU
Wk 18
8.012/16 SU
Wk 19
5.65/6 SU
Wk 20
12.13/4 SU
Wk 21
14.11/2 SU
Wk 22
7.70/1 SU
Worst misses
- Wk 16 · predicted -0.7, actual +3737.7 off
- Wk 11 · predicted +0.3, actual -3737.3 off
- Wk 5 · predicted -2.1, actual +2931.1 off
- Wk 18 · predicted -8.9, actual +2028.9 off
- Wk 5 · predicted -4.0, actual +2327.0 off
- Wk 8 · predicted -2.8, actual +2426.8 off
- Wk 7 · predicted +7.2, actual -1926.2 off
- Wk 11 · predicted -1.8, actual -2826.2 off